Cautious optimism in the growing US Economy is not matched elsewhere with Germany and South Korea both showing declining business morale. Brexit is still centre stage for the UK and factories are stockpiling faster than they have for 60 years.
Bank of England Reports Published in April 2019
Interpretation of EU Guidelines & Recommendations: Bank of England & PRA Approach After the UK’s Withdrawal from the EU – Read the report
This joint Bank of England and Prudential Regulation Authority Statement of Policy sets out the Bank’s and PRA’s approach to EU Guidelines and Recommendations in light of the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union.
Bank of England/TNS Inflation Attitudes Survey – Read the report
This article describes the results of the Bank of England’s latest quarterly survey of public attitudes to inflation, undertaken in February 2019.
Shocks & Labour Cost Adjustment: Evidence from a Survey of European Firms – Read the report
In this working paper the Bank of England uses firm-level survey data from 25 EU countries to analyse how businesses adjust their labour costs (employment, wages and hours) in response to shocks.
US Economy Grows by 3.2% in 2019
From: The BBC
The economy’s growth in the first quarter has been much higher than the expected 2.5%.
However, experts have warned that over half the 3.2% GDP figure is due to surge in inventories and slower trade. Imports fell, consumer spending and business investment slowed to a crawl, and the federal government flatlined in the wake of the government shutdown.
German and Korean Growth Concerns Shake Markets
From: Daily Forex
South Korea’s economy unexpectedly shrank in the first quarter of 2019, finalising the country’s first quarter of loss since the global financial crisis in 2008.
Reports out of Germany also crushed optimism, with data showing that German business morale declined in April despite expectation of an improvement.
Both the currency markets and the global stock markets were pressured by the news.
Crude Oil Prices Spike Lower as WTI Crude Breaks Below $65
From: Daily FX
WTI and Brent crude futures have both come under notable selling pressure in recent trade with WTI breaking below the $65 to lows of $64.30, while Brent crude futures are down over 1.3%.
Global Economy is Close to Stalling as Trade Falls
World trade volumes are falling for the first time since the end of the financial crisis in a sign the global economy is only one more major shock away from recession. Trade volumes in the three months between December and February were down 0.8 percent.
UK Factories Stockpile for Brexit at Fastest Pace in at Least 60 Years
With Brexit approaching, British factories stockpiled over the last three months at the fastest pace since records began in the 1950s.
The Confederation of British Industry’s (CBI) quarterly survey showed that Brexit and a slowdown in the global economy has made manufacturers, who account for 10 percent of the British economy, increasingly downbeat about their prospects.
FX Rates in April
Apr Low: 1.1533
Apr End: 1.1572
Apr Low: 1.2904
Apr End: 1.2933
Apr Low: 1.1141
Apr End: 1.1176