Caution ahead of the Federal Reserve policy announcement.

Risk appetite dipped again on Tuesday amid further concerns over the Omicron variant. There was also caution ahead of the Federal Reserve policy announcement.

Wall Street equities moved significantly lower. Global equity markets were mixed with net losses in China and Hong Kong.

US bond yields were little changed with inflation expectations in focus. After an early retreat, the dollar posted net gains on expectations of a hawkish Fed.

EUR/USD failed to hold above 1.1300 with support just above 1.1250. Sterling was resilient despite UK Omicron fears with GBP/USD support near 1.3200 and tentative gains after the higher-than-expected inflation print. Commodity currencies posted significant losses amid fragile risk and firm dollar.

The US NFIB small-business confidence index edged higher to 98.4 for November from 98.2 previously. Companies, however, did express increased uncertainty and there was also strong upward pressure on prices with price increases seen at the fastest rate since 1979.

The Euro was able to make headway ahead of Tuesday’s New York open with a move to above 1.1300 against the dollar despite a lack of yield support. There was further evidence of Euro short covering ahead of key central bank policy meetings this week.

US producer prices increased 0.8% for November, above consensus forecasts of 0.5% with the year-on-year rate increasing to 9.6% from 8.8% and above market expectations of 8.8%. Core prices increased 0.7% on the month with the annual rate increasing to 7.7% from 7.0% and above forecasts of 7.2%. This was the highest core rate since the data series started in 2014, maintaining underlying concerns surrounding inflation trends.

The data had some impact in increasing inflation concerns ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy decision. There are widespread expectations that the Fed will announce a faster pace of asset-purchase tapering and that the interest rate forecasts by individual Fed members will also be increased.

EUR/USD was unable to hold above the 1.1300 level and there was a significant retreat later in the day as underlying yield spreads remained negative for the single currency. The dollar also gained an element of support on defensive grounds as equities moved lower with a EUR/USD retreat to lows just above 1.1250.

Narrow ranges prevailed on Wednesday ahead of the Federal Reserve policy decision with EUR/USD around 1.1275 with risk conditions watched closely.

US Treasuries were subjected to choppy trading on Tuesday with net losses into the European close, although there was a significant recovery from lows as equities moved lower. The yen was unable to gain significant support despite the notable decline in equities and the dollar was able to secure a slight net advance into the European close as USD/JPY traded around 113.60. The Bank of Japan continued to resist any increase in money market rates which sapped yen support.

US Congress voted in favour of increasing the Federal debt ceiling, removing the immediate threat of a default, although there was still no longer-term resolution.

Chinese industrial production growth was in line with consensus forecasts at 3.8% in the year to November from 3.5% previously, but retail sales growth was below expectations at 3.9% from 4.9% previously while there was also an increase in the unemployment rate.

Asian equity markets were mixed with a slight recovery in US futures and USD/JPY consolidated around 113.75 in early Europe on Wednesday.

There was a muted impact from the latest labour-market data with the immediate Bank of England focus likely to be on the Omicron uncertainties rather than the underlying case for a tighter monetary policy. Markets also continued to monitor risk conditions closely.

Sterling was unable to make headway into the New York open but was broadly resilient later in the day despite a sharp retreat in US equity markets.

The market consensus has switched towards expecting no change in interest rates from the Bank of England at Thursday’s policy meeting. Given the shift in expectations and market pricing this lessened the potential for further Sterling selling by hedge funds.

The UK CPI inflation rate increased sharply to 5.1% for November from 4.2% previously, above consensus forecasts of 4.7% and the highest rate for just over 10 years. The core rate also increased to 4.0% from 3.4%. The sharp increase will maintain pressure for a bank of England response and Sterling edged higher after the data, but GBP/USD was held just below 1.3250 with GBP/EUR around 1.1750 amid expectations that the central bank would keep rates on hold this week.

Economic Calendar

Expected Previous
07:00 GBP CPI (Y/Y)(NOV) 4.70% 4.20%
07:00 GBP Core CPI (Y/Y)(NOV) 3.70% 3.40%
07:00 GBP PPI Input (Y/Y)(NOV) 13.70%
07:00 GBP PPI Input (M/M)(NOV) 0.50% 1.60%
07:00 GBP PPI Core Output (Y/Y)(NOV) 7.1
07:00 GBP PPI Output (Y/Y)(NOV) 8.30% 8.60%
09:00 CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY(DEC) 2.90% 3.80%
09:00 CPI (EU Norm) Prelim MM(NOV) 0.70% 0.80%
09:00 CPI (EU Norm) Final YY*(DEC) 3.10% 4.00%
09:00 CPI (EU Norm) Final MM*(NOV) 0.80%
13:15 CAD Housing Starts(NOV) 255.0K 236.6K
13:30 USD Export Price Index (M/M)(NOV) 0.9 1.5
13:30 USD Import Price Index (M/M)(NOV) 1.20%
13:30 NY Empire State Manufacturing Index(DEC) 21.2 30.9
13:30 USD Core Retail Sales (M/M)(NOV) 1.00% 1.70%
13:30 USD Advance Retail Sales (M/M)(NOV) 1.70%
13:30 Bank of Canada Core CPI (Y/Y)(NOV) 3.80%
13:30 Bank of Canada Core CPI (M/M)(NOV) 0.60%
13:30 CAD CPI (M/M)(NOV) 0.70%
13:30 CAD CPI (Y/Y)(NOV) 4.70%
15:00 USD Business Inventories(OCT) 0.70%
15:00 NAHB Housing Market Index(NOV) 83

*All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only. It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold. Rates are correct as of 8:00am UK time. CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown.