US Dollar Sees Modest Gain Amid Economic Uncertainty as Sterling Strengthens Position.
USD Update: The U.S. dollar, as measured by the DXY index, exhibited a slight uptick on Tuesday, reaching 103.95, despite a pullback in U.S. Treasury yields following disappointing JOLTS data. The data revealed a significantly lower number of job openings in October than anticipated, raising concerns about economic momentum. While the greenback has shown signs of rebound since late November, analysts caution that this move might be influenced more by technical factors than changing underlying dynamics. Fundamentals have recently deteriorated, with the U.S. economy showing more signs of slowing down this quarter. The upcoming nonfarm payrolls report on Friday from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is eagerly awaited for more clues about the broader economic outlook. Analysts estimate that U.S. employers are likely to have added 170,000 jobs last month, following the addition of 150,000 workers in October. Weak employment growth could heighten rate-cut expectations, potentially paving the way for the U.S. dollar to resume its downward correction.
GBP Outlook: The GBP/USD pair broke a two-day losing streak and held above the crucial 1.2600 support level during Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The modest decline of the U.S. Dollar created a tailwind for the pair, which currently trades near 1.2607, reflecting a 0.11% gain on the day. The disappointing U.S. JOLTS labor data on Tuesday, indicating a drop of 617,000 job openings to 8.733 million in October, has played a role in the dollar’s decline. The attention of investors now shifts to November’s ADP job report, with an expected rise of 130,000. Additionally, the US ISM Services PMI for November grew to 52.7 from 51.8 in the previous reading, surpassing market expectations. The focus remains on U.S. employment data this week, including ADP Employment Change and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), offering potential hints about the future interest rate path. However, the market expectation is that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will leave rates unchanged at its December meeting next week. On the GBP front, markets are increasingly betting on an earlier start to interest rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE). Financial markets are now almost fully pricing in a first BoE rate cut by June 2024. The BoE’s release of its monthly Financial Stability Report on Wednesday is poised to provide investors with valuable insights into the central bank’s leaning towards a hawkish or dovish stance.
EUR Developments: Similar to the GBP/USD pair, the EUR/USD also witnessed a turnaround during Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The modest decline of the U.S. Dollar created a favorable environment for the euro, with the pair currently trading near 1.2607, reflecting a 0.11% gain on the day. The disappointing U.S. JOLTS labor data continues to impact market sentiments, with attention now turning to the upcoming ADP job report and other employment data. Market participants are closely watching for hints about the future interest rate path, even as expectations lean towards the Federal Reserve maintaining rates at its December meeting. Speculation rises regarding an earlier interest rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE), with markets nearly fully pricing in a first BoE rate cut by June 2024. The release of BoE’s monthly Financial Stability Report on Wednesday is expected to shed light on the central bank’s stance and provide investors with critical insights.