Risk appetite stabilised on Monday amid slightly less alarming coronavirus data from the US, although caution prevailed.
Risk appetite stabilised on Monday amid slightly less alarming coronavirus data from the US, although caution prevailed. Fed Chair Powell continued to pledge strong support for the economy amid very high uncertainty over trends.
Markets wanted to price in a global recovery and equity markets made net gains led by a further advance on Wall Street, but Asian gains faded late in the session. After sharp initial losses, the dollar regained ground with little overall net change and EUR/USD below 1.1250.
Sterling remained under pressure with GBP/EUR at fresh 3-month lows as fundamental confidence remained weak. Commodity currencies drifted lower on US dollar gains before recovering as China’s PMI data provided an element of support.
Euro-zone industrial sentiment recovered to -21.7 for June from -27.5 the previous month, although this was weaker than consensus forecasts. The services-sector index also failed to match market expectations with a recovery to -35.6 from -43.6 previously, denting expectations of a rapid recovery.
The German CPI inflation rate increased to 0.9% from 0.6% and compared with market expectations of 0.6%. The data may ease ECB fears that deflationary pressures will take hold, especially if Tuesday’s Euro-zone data is also above consensus forecasts. The central bank will, however, maintain a highly expansionary monetary policy in the short term. EUR/USD advanced in European trading, but was unable to attack the 1.1300 area.
The Dallas Fed manufacturing index recovered to -6.1 from -49.2 previously and above market expectations of -22.0. Regional manufacturing surveys have been strong which suggests there may be a strong reading for the National ISM release on Wednesday. The dollar overall regained ground during the day with some indications that the US currency would gain support from month-end positioning. EUR/USD retreated to the 1.1220 area around the European close.
In prepared comments ahead of Tuesday’s congressional testimony, Fed Chair Powell stated that recent data offered some positive signs, but output and employment were far below pre-pandemic levels. The economy had entered a new important phase sooner than expected while the path ahead is uncertain while he continued to back strong stimulus support for the economy. EUR/USD dipped again to trade around 1.1225 in early Europe with solid underlying demand in global markets.
US equity markets overall were little changed into the New York open as overall confidence remained fragile and USD/JPY held above the 107.00 level.
The latest data from Florida reported a decline in new infections to below 5,300 for Monday from over 8,500 previously, although there is usually a significant drop on Mondays. Statistics overall painted a slightly less negative picture, although there were concerns over weekend impacts and Tuesday’s data will be watched closely.
US equities posted limited gains and the Japanese yen was unable to gain significant support. With the US currency securing wider gains, USD/JPY strengthened to highs around 107.80. Equities held a firm tone following Powell’s comments, although the dollar failed to hold its best levels in New York.
China’s manufacturing PMI index edged higher to 50.9 from 50.6 previously and above consensus expectations of 50.4 while the non-manufacturing index strengthened to a 7-month high of 54.4
from 53.7. Exports and domestic retail sales were weak, however, and manufacturing employment also declined. The data overall helped underpin risk appetite. Japan’s industrial production declined 8.4% for May compared with expectations of 5.4% and USD/JPY was slightly stronger around 107.75.
UK mortgage approvals declined further to a record low of 9,300 for May from 15,600 previously and below consensus forecasts of 25,000 as May’s re-opening of the housing market failed to provide an immediate lift. There was a further decline in consumer lending of £3.4bn for May after the £7.4bn slide previously. Bank of England data also recorded a surge in borrowing by small businesses with the funding needed for survival given that substantial parts of the economy remained under lockdown.
As the latest round of Brexit talks got underway, the EU Commission stated that its overall message for this week as well as coming weeks and months is to make progress and secure a deal. The remarks did not suggest expectations of a quick result and market confidence remained fragile.
Sterling overall remained under pressure with a GBP/USD retreat to 1-month lows near 1.2250 while the GBP/EUR weakened to 3-month lows near 1.0900 before a correction to 1.0950. Sterling stabilised on Tuesday as global risk appetite held firm, although sentiment remained notably fragile as a local lockdown in Leicester reinforced market unease. First-quarter UK GDP was revised down to -2.2% from -2.0% previously with a sharp widening of the currency account deficit reinforcing a lack of confidence and GBP/USD was held below 1.2300.
|07:00||GBP Current Account||-15.4B||-5.6B|
|07:00||United Kingdom GDP (Y/Y)||-1.60%||1.10%|
|07:00||United Kingdom GDP (Q/Q)||-2.00%||0.00%|
|07:00||GBP Total Business Investment (Q/Q)||0.00%||-0.50%|
|07:30||CHF Retail Sales (Y/Y)(MAY)||-||-19.90%|
|07:45||Consumer Spending MM(MAY)||-15.00%||-20.20%|
|08:00||CHF KOF Leading Indicator(JUN)||70||53.2|
|10:00||CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY(JUN)||-||-0.20%|
|10:00||CPI (EU Norm) Prelim MM(JUN)||-0.10%||-0.20%|
|10:00||CPI (EU Norm) Final MM*(JUN)||-0.10%||-0.30%|
|10:00||CPI (EU Norm) Final YY*(JUN)||-0.20%||-0.30%|
|10:00||Euro-Zone CPI (Y/Y)(JUN)||0.10%||0.10%|
|13:30||CAD GDP (M/M)(APR)||-||-7.20%|
|14:45||USD Chicago PMI(JUN)||43.9||32.3|
|15:00||USD CB Consumer Confidence(JUN)||90||86.6|
|23:30||AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index(JUN)||-||41.6|
|23:45||NZD Building Permits (M/M)(MAY)||-||-6.50%|