US data releases were mixed, but strong enough to prevent significant US dollar selling.

US data releases were mixed but strong enough to prevent significant US dollar selling. Weak Euro-zone PMI business confidence data undermine the Euro with EUR/USD moving lower as yield spreads undermined the single currency.

Oil prices moved sharply higher to 5-month highs following reports that waivers on the ban of Iranian crude exports would not be renewed. The Canadian dollar secured only limited support despite higher oil prices while commodity commodities overall lost ground.

Risk appetite was slightly more cautious on Tuesday following reports that China would scale back stimulus measures.

Demand for defensive assets was still very limited with the Swiss franc under pressure while gold failed to make significant headway.

Headline UK retail sales increased 1.1% for March compared with consensus estimates of a slight decline on the month and there was an upward revision to February’s data. Annual growth of 6.7% was the strongest since October 2016, although the data was distorted by adverse weather last year and Sterling secured only a brief lift from the data. The UK currency overall was unable to make any headway and GBP/USD dipped below 1.3000 while GBP/EUR was resilient near 1.1550.

Latest CFTC data recorded a shift to a net long position in speculative contracts for the first time in 10 months which will limit the scope for fresh Sterling buying unless there are significant positive fundamental developments.

Sterling was unable to make headway on Monday despite fresh gains in global oil prices. Political developments will be important in the week ahead with parliament returning from recess with Prime Minister May under very strong pressure to set a resignation date. Government talks with the Labour Party will resume and GBP/USD was held below 1.3000.

Economic Calendar