Mixed US Data Keeps Dollar Supported, FX Markets Cautious.

• USD – Firm but selective, supported by strong services data and safe-haven demand, with markets laser-focused on payrolls and legal risks around tariffs.

• EUR – Steady and largely range-bound, underpinned by inflation near target and limited expectations for ECB policy changes.

• GBP – Modestly softer after recent gains, with little domestic data to provide direction ahead of key US events.

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USD

The dollar edged higher yesterday following a mixed batch of US data. While JOLTS job openings fell sharply from 7.7M to 7.1M, suggesting some cooling in the labour market, ISM services surprised strongly at 54.4, reinforcing the picture of resilient economic activity. Durable goods orders met expectations, adding little new direction.

Attention now turns to today’s jobless claims and, more importantly, Friday’s non-farm payrolls report, where consensus expects a subdued 70K print. Alongside the data, markets are also watching a Supreme Court ruling on the legality of Trump-era tariffs. While most expect any ruling against them to be circumvented, the key risk would be a forced repayment of previously collected tariff revenues, which could trigger broader market volatility.

GBP

Sterling has eased modestly over the past couple of sessions, giving back part of Monday’s advance. With little in the way of UK data, price action has been largely driven by broader dollar moves.

The only domestic release of note today is the Bank of England’s inflation expectations survey, expected to dip slightly to 3.3% on a one-year view. Unless there is a surprise, sterling is likely to remain reactive to US data rather than driven by local fundamentals.

EUR

Eurozone inflation met expectations at 2.0% yesterday, reinforcing market confidence that the ECB is comfortably on hold for the foreseeable future. As a result, rate expectations remain stable, and the euro continues to trade without strong directional conviction.

Today’s focus is largely external to the core eurozone, with inflation data from Switzerland and Sweden already showing subdued price pressures. With ECB policy seen as predictable, near-term euro moves are likely to remain modest and driven primarily by developments in the dollar and overall risk sentiment.

Economic Calendar