Caution ahead of the G20 trade talks.
Narrow ranges prevailed across most asset classes on Thursday with caution ahead of the G20 trade talks.
Risk appetite was slightly stronger in New York, although equity markets lost ground on Friday with month-end position adjustment also a significant factor.
The dollar registered slight net losses and close to 3-month lows amid expectations of lower interest rates with EUR/USD held in tight ranges.
Commodity currencies made net gains with important psychological levels including 0.7000 for AUD/USD in focus.
Oil prices were little changed with demand and supply issues in focus. Concerns over major currencies triggered fresh gains in gold, especially after finding further support above $1,400 per ounce.
Bitcoin registered a sharp correction after recent gains as volatility remained higher.
Sterling continued to be hampered by political concerns, especially with unease over conflicting comments from Conservative Party leadership candidate Johnson. There were still concerns over the risk of a ‘no-deal’ outcome and concerns over underlying damage to the economy, especially with unease over persistent weakness in investment.
The UK currency did make gains in European trading, but GBP/USD encountered further selling interest above 1.2700 and was unable to derive support from gains in commodity currencies with net losses in New York.
Markets remained uneasy over the risk of month-end selling with volatility liable to increase during Friday. After failing to hold above 1.2700, GBP/USD retreated to 1.2670 while GBP/EUR fell to five-month lows around 1.1140 before correcting slightly. UK confidence data was mixed as the Lloyds business barometer strengthened for June, the third increase in four months, but consumer confidence declined and Sterling was unable to make any headway on Friday.
Economic Calendar
| Expected | Previous | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 07:45 | Consumer Spending MM(MAY) | 0.40% | 0.80% |
| 08:00 | CHF KOF Leading Indicator(JUN) | 95.6 | 94.4 |
| 09:30 | GBP Total Business Investment (Q/Q) | - | 0.50% |
| 09:30 | GBP Current Account | -23.0B | -23.7B |
| 09:30 | United Kingdom GDP (Y/Y) | 1.30% | 1.80% |
| 09:30 | United Kingdom GDP (Q/Q) | 0.20% | 0.50% |
| 10:00 | CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY(JUN) | - | 0.80% |
| 10:00 | CPI (EU Norm) Prelim MM(JUN) | - | 0.20% |
| 10:00 | CPI (EU Norm) Final YY*(JUN) | 1.00% | 0.90% |
| 10:00 | CPI (EU Norm) Final MM*(JUN) | - | 0.10% |
| 10:00 | Euro-Zone CPI (Y/Y)(JUN) | 1.30% | 1.20% |
| 13:30 | USD PCE Core Price Index (Y/Y)(MAY) | 1.60% | 1.60% |
| 13:30 | USD PCE Core Price Index(M/M)(MAY) | 0.10% | 0.20% |
| 13:30 | USD Personal Income (M/M)(MAY) | 0.30% | 0.50% |
| 13:30 | USD Personal Spending (M/M)(MAY) | 0.40% | 0.30% |
| 13:30 | CAD GDP (M/M)(APR) | - | 0.50% |
| 13:30 | CAD RMPI (M/M)(MAY) | - | 5.60% |
| 14:45 | USD Chicago PMI(JUN) | 54.3 | 54.2 |
| 15:00 | USD Michigan Consumer Sentiment(JUN 01) | 97.9 | 97.9 |