FX Market Update: Dollar supported by data; euro firms on ECB outlook, sterling remains cautious.
USD – Remains supported as recent US data continues to reinforce expectations that the Fed will keep rates on hold, providing ongoing support for the dollar.
EUR – Trades with a firmer tone, supported by expectations that the ECB may still need to tighten further later in the year despite a pause in the current cycle.
GBP – Remains range-bound, with the Bank of England expected to stay on hold for now as economic and policy risks continue to linger.
USD: The dollar remains well supported this morning, with markets taking confidence from recent US economic data and the expectation that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged for the foreseeable future. While there is less pressure for further tightening, the combination of resilient growth and relatively high yields continues to underpin the greenback. As a result, USD remains broadly supported against both EUR and GBP.
EUR: The euro has strengthened against the dollar, supported by a softer USD backdrop and growing expectations that the ECB could still deliver further tightening later this year if inflation remains persistent. While the market expects the ECB to remain cautious in the near term, the prospect of another rate increase in September is providing support to the single currency. For now, EUR remains relatively well bid against the dollar.
Economic Calendar
| Expected | Previous | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 9am BST - EUR | German Business Survey - IFO - Business sentiment index | 84.8 | 84.1 |
| 9am BST - EUR | Eurozone Money Supply Q3 | 3.3% | 3.2% |
| 11am BST - GBP | CBI Distributive Trade Supply | 2.5% | -54 |
| 1:30pm BST - USD | Durable Goods - Total Orders | 2.5% | -4.5% |
