FX Market Update: Dollar supported by data; euro firms on ECB outlook, sterling remains cautious.

USD – Remains supported as recent US data continues to reinforce expectations that the Fed will keep rates on hold, providing ongoing support for the dollar.

EUR – Trades with a firmer tone, supported by expectations that the ECB may still need to tighten further later in the year despite a pause in the current cycle.

GBP – Remains range-bound, with the Bank of England expected to stay on hold for now as economic and policy risks continue to linger.


USD: The dollar remains well supported this morning, with markets taking confidence from recent US economic data and the expectation that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged for the foreseeable future. While there is less pressure for further tightening, the combination of resilient growth and relatively high yields continues to underpin the greenback. As a result, USD remains broadly supported against both EUR and GBP.

EUR: The euro has strengthened against the dollar, supported by a softer USD backdrop and growing expectations that the ECB could still deliver further tightening later this year if inflation remains persistent. While the market expects the ECB to remain cautious in the near term, the prospect of another rate increase in September is providing support to the single currency. For now, EUR remains relatively well bid against the dollar.

GBP: Sterling remains relatively subdued, with the Bank of England expected to remain on hold as policymakers assess ongoing economic risks. While the pound has been relatively stable, there is little conviction behind recent moves and the currency continues to lack a clear domestic catalyst. As a result, GBP is likely to remain sensitive to broader moves in USD and evolving central bank expectations.

Economic Calendar

Expected Previous
9am BST - EUR German Business Survey - IFO - Business sentiment index 84.8 84.1
9am BST - EUR Eurozone Money Supply Q3 3.3% 3.2%
11am BST - GBP CBI Distributive Trade Supply 2.5% -54
1:30pm BST - USD Durable Goods - Total Orders 2.5% -4.5%

*All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only. It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold. Rates are correct as of 8:00am UK time. CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown.