FX Market Update: Strong US Data Keeps Dollar in Control.
USD – Remains well supported, with the Dollar Index holding above 101 following stronger-than-expected US PMI data that reinforced confidence in the US growth outlook.
EUR – Continues to struggle against the dollar, with EUR/USD trading below 1.1400 near a two-month low as strong US economic data widens the policy and growth divergence.
GBP – Shows relative resilience, holding onto recent gains despite stronger US PMIs and a hawkish Federal Reserve backdrop.
USD: The US dollar continues to outperform its major peers after stronger-than-expected PMI data reinforced expectations that the US economy remains on a firmer footing than many other developed markets. The Dollar Index is holding comfortably above the 101 level, supported by robust growth prospects and a Federal Reserve that remains cautious about easing policy too aggressively. Investors have responded by favouring the greenback, particularly as economic momentum in the US continues to surpass expectations. While markets remain attentive to upcoming data releases, the near-term outlook remains supportive for the dollar as growth and rate differentials continue to work in its favour.
EUR: The euro remains under pressure, with EUR/USD trading below the 1.1400 level and hovering near its lowest levels in almost two months. According to Danske Bank, the stronger US PMI readings have reinforced dollar demand, highlighting the contrast between economic activity in the US and the Eurozone. The pair has struggled to establish a meaningful recovery as investors continue to favour the relative strength of the US economy. Attention is also turning towards the upcoming Trump-Xi summit, which could influence broader risk sentiment and currency markets. For now, the bias remains tilted to the downside while US data continues to outperform.
GBP: Sterling has demonstrated greater resilience than the euro, managing to hold onto recent gains despite the stronger US economic backdrop and hawkish Fed rhetoric. GBP/USD has eased from recent highs but remains relatively well supported as investors balance dollar strength against expectations that UK interest rates could remain elevated for some time. The pound’s ability to withstand the latest wave of dollar buying suggests underlying confidence in the UK outlook, although further gains may be limited if US economic data continues to exceed expectations. Traders will continue to monitor both UK and US developments for fresh direction, but for now sterling remains comparatively stable against its major peers.
Economic Calendar
| Expected | Previous | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30am BST - CHF | Libor Rate | 0% | 0% |
| 08:30am BST - SEK | Riksbank Rate | 1.75% | 1.75% |
| 09:00am BST - EUR | German Business Survey - IFO | 89 | 88.8 |
| 09:00am BST - NOK | Norges Bank rate | 4.5% | 4.25% |
| 13:30pm BST - CAD | Canadian Retail Sales (MoM) | / | 0.6% |
| 13:30pm BST - USD | US Employment - Unemployment Claims | 201k | 196k |
| 15:00pm BST - USD | US New Home Sales - Overall Sales (MoM) | 615K | 607K |
