The US dollar is trading with a mild bid into the European session as markets brace for the preliminary S&P Global US PMI releases for April. Persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to provide some underlying support, even as risk appetite stabilises. The Dollar Index is holding around the 98.60 area, reflecting cautious positioning ahead of data expected to show a modest stabilisation in US business activity.

Traders are particularly focused on the Services PMI, forecast to rebound back to the 50.0 threshold, alongside a slight improvement in Manufacturing PMI. The data will be key in shaping near‑term expectations for US growth momentum and, by extension, the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook, keeping the dollar closely tied to incoming macro signals.

EUR

The euro remains on the defensive as concerns grow that ongoing conflict risks could begin to weigh more visibly on Eurozone economic activity. Commerzbank warns that April PMIs could slip toward or below the 50 mark, signalling potential contraction as high energy prices and uncertainty start to filter through to orders and production.

This backdrop complicates the ECB’s policy calculus, raising the risk of second‑round inflation effects while simultaneously threatening growth. As a result, the euro is struggling to attract demand, with EUR/USD remaining sensitive to risk sentiment and downside risks linked to a deteriorating macro outlook.

GBP

Sterling is trading with limited direction ahead of the release of the UK preliminary Services PMI for April. The index is expected to ease to 50.0 from 50.5, reinforcing concerns that momentum in the UK’s dominant services sector may be slowing.

With Manufacturing and Composite PMIs also seen edging lower, GBP/USD may remain subdued, particularly as the data are unlikely to materially shift Bank of England policy expectations. As such, sterling remains largely driven by broader US dollar moves and global risk sentiment rather than strong domestic catalysts.