FX Market Update: Dollar steady on mixed drivers; euro flat, sterling struggles for momentum.
USD – Holds a steady tone as geopolitical developments and cautious positioning offset support from a hawkish Fed and elevated yields.
EUR – Trades sideways against the dollar, with ECB rate expectations providing support but broader USD strength limiting upside.
GBP – Remains stable but lacks momentum, with geopolitical uncertainty and firm USD conditions capping gains.
USD:
EUR:
The euro is trading in a relatively narrow range against the dollar, with EURUSD consolidating around the mid‑1.16 level. ECB rate expectations continue to offer some support to the single currency, particularly as markets price in the possibility of further tightening. However, this is being offset by a firm dollar backdrop, with US rate dynamics and broader risk sentiment continuing to dominate price action. Additionally, euro movement remains closely tied to external drivers such as energy prices and global yields, limiting any sustained upside in the near term.
GBP:
Sterling is holding steady but continues to struggle to build meaningful momentum against the dollar, with GBPUSD consolidating around the mid‑1.34 levels. While there has been no major deterioration in UK fundamentals, the pound remains sensitive to external drivers, particularly geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Iran and the broader strength of USD. In the absence of strong domestic catalysts, GBP is likely to remain range‑bound, with upside capped unless dollar strength meaningfully softens.
Economic Calendar
| Expected | Previous | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 8:45am BST - EUR | Italian PMI - Manufacturing | 51.9 | 52.1 |
| 8:50am BST - EUR | French PMI - Manufacturing | 48.9 | 52.8 |
| 8:55am BST - EUR | German PMI - Manufacturing | 49.9 | 51.4 |
| 9am BST - EUR | Eurozone PMI - Manufacturing | 51.4 | 52.2 |
| 9am BST - GBP | UK PMI - Manufacturing | 53.7 | 53.7 |
| 10am BST - EUR | Eurozone Employment - Unemployment Rate | 6.2% | 6.2% |
| 3pm BST - USD | US PMI - Manufacturing | 53 | 52.7 |
