FX Market Update: Dollar steady on mixed drivers; euro flat, sterling struggles for momentum.

USD – Holds a steady tone as geopolitical developments and cautious positioning offset support from a hawkish Fed and elevated yields.

EUR – Trades sideways against the dollar, with ECB rate expectations providing support but broader USD strength limiting upside.

GBP – Remains stable but lacks momentum, with geopolitical uncertainty and firm USD conditions capping gains.

USD:

The dollar is holding broadly steady, with the DXY trading around recent levels as markets balance competing drivers. On one hand, elevated US yields and a still‑hawkish Federal Reserve stance continue to provide underlying support. On the other, tentative optimism around a potential US–Iran de‑escalation is tempering safe‑haven flows into USD. As a result, the dollar remains range‑bound for now, with near‑term direction likely to be driven by geopolitical headlines and further clarity on the US policy outlook.

EUR:
The euro is trading in a relatively narrow range against the dollar, with EURUSD consolidating around the mid‑1.16 level. ECB rate expectations continue to offer some support to the single currency, particularly as markets price in the possibility of further tightening. However, this is being offset by a firm dollar backdrop, with US rate dynamics and broader risk sentiment continuing to dominate price action. Additionally, euro movement remains closely tied to external drivers such as energy prices and global yields, limiting any sustained upside in the near term.

GBP:
Sterling is holding steady but continues to struggle to build meaningful momentum against the dollar, with GBPUSD consolidating around the mid‑1.34 levels. While there has been no major deterioration in UK fundamentals, the pound remains sensitive to external drivers, particularly geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Iran and the broader strength of USD. In the absence of strong domestic catalysts, GBP is likely to remain range‑bound, with upside capped unless dollar strength meaningfully softens.

Economic Calendar

Expected Previous
8:45am BST - EUR Italian PMI - Manufacturing 51.9 52.1
8:50am BST - EUR French PMI - Manufacturing 48.9 52.8
8:55am BST - EUR German PMI - Manufacturing 49.9 51.4
9am BST - EUR Eurozone PMI - Manufacturing 51.4 52.2
9am BST - GBP UK PMI - Manufacturing 53.7 53.7
10am BST - EUR Eurozone Employment - Unemployment Rate 6.2% 6.2%
3pm BST - USD US PMI - Manufacturing 53 52.7

*All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only. It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold. Rates are correct as of 8:00am UK time. CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown.