FX Markets Steady as Dollar Firms, Euro Holds Ground, and Sterling Remains Under Pressure.

USD:

The dollar has firmed modestly today as markets brace for a fresh wave of U.S. economic data after the end of the recent government shutdown. With many key releases delayed, traders are watching closely for signs of strength or weakness in the U.S. labour market and inflation. The slight pick-up reflects rising expectations that the Federal Reserve may hold off cutting rates imminently — especially as futures now price a lower probability of a December rate cut. Overall, the USD remains structurally supported unless U.S. data disappoints or global risk sentiment improves markedly.

EUR: 

The euro is relatively stable around 1.1620 versus the dollar today. Interestingly, despite recent cuts in the ECB’s policy rate, the euro has shown resilience and is increasingly being viewed as a partial safe-haven amid concerns over stretched valuations in U.S. tech stocks. That said, the euro lacks a clear domestic catalyst to drive a strong breakout — key euro-zone data (PMIs, inflation) is still awaited. If the USD strengthens further or euro-zone data disappoints, EUR may drift back toward support near 1.1550–1.1600.

GBP: 

The pound remains under pronounced pressure, trading around 1.3170 against the USD this morning. The vulnerability stems from a weak UK growth backdrop, heightened fiscal uncertainty and speculation over the upcoming budget. Analysts continue to flag downside risk for GBP/EUR toward ~1.11 in coming quarters if these pressures persist. Unless there is a clear upside surprise — either via UK data or policy clarity from the Bank of England — sterling’s near-term outlook remains subdued.