USD Faces Heavy Data, Euro Steady, Sterling Supported Ahead of UK PMI.

• USD – Markets face a heavy data day, including delayed earnings and employment figures from October and November due to the government shutdown.

• EUR –  Euro trades steadily, supported by ECB messaging emphasizing a cautious, data-driven approach to policy.
  

• GBP – Sterling gains modestly after slightly firmer-than-expected UK wage data for the three months to October.

USD:

Today brings an exceptionally heavy U.S. data calendar, with markets digesting a raft of key releases. We will be getting October and November earnings and employment data from the US due to the government shutdown previously not showing this release. While Fed officials have not yet expressed concern over a sharp deterioration in employment conditions, markets remain sensitive to downside surprises. With the probability of a January rate cut still priced at only around 25%, weaker-than-expected figures could weigh on the dollar by reinforcing expectations of a more aggressive easing cycle. Meanwhile, the composite PMI is forecast to edge lower, pointing to modest cooling in overall activity.

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EUR: 

The euro is trading with a steady to slightly firmer tone today as markets reassess the medium-term policy outlook following recent ECB communication. Investors continue to take comfort from the central bank’s emphasis on a cautious, data-driven approach, with officials signalling that while inflation has eased, underlying pressures — particularly in services — warrant patience before any further policy adjustment. This stance is helping anchor rate expectations and providing the euro with relative stability against peers. EUR price action today has been driven more by rate differentials and positioning than by fresh euro-area data, with calendar risks light.

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GBP: 

Sterling is showing some strength this morning after UK wage data for the three months ending in October came in slightly firmer than expected. Markets are now shifting focus to today’s December PMI releases, with analysts watching for signs of activity momentum heading into 2026. November PMIs were initially disappointing but later revised higher to 51.2, slightly easing concerns about slowing growth. Looking ahead, sterling remains sensitive to upcoming UK economic data, particularly tomorrow’s CPI inflation report, where the headline is expected at 3.5%. In the absence of further surprises, GBP is likely to trade within a narrow range, influenced by global risk sentiment and flows rather than sharp domestic shocks.

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