Dollar Cautious as Supreme Court Tariff Ruling Still Pending; UK GDP Gives Sterling Direction.
USD – Trading cautiously as uncertainty persists ahead of a Supreme Court decision on Trump-era tariffs, with markets also digesting yesterday’s US data.
EUR – Little changed, with the euro taking its lead from a subdued dollar and a lack of fresh eurozone catalysts.
GBP – In focus after this morning’s UK GDP release, offering a clearer steer for sterling.
USD:
The US dollar is holding a cautious tone, as markets continue to await a Supreme Court ruling on the legality of the Trump-era tariffs. The lack of clarity around the decision is keeping investors sidelined, given the potential implications for US trade policy, government finances, and broader risk sentiment. Until a ruling is delivered, this legal uncertainty is acting as a near-term restraint on the dollar.
Markets are also digesting yesterday’s US economic data, which included retail sales and producer price inflation (PPI). Retail sales pointed to resilient consumer demand, while PPI data suggested easing price pressures at the producer level. Together, the releases offered a mixed but generally reassuring picture of the US economy, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve can afford to remain patient on policy for now.
Overall, the dollar remains sensitive to developments on both the policy and legal fronts, with today’s tone likely to stay cautious unless clarity emerges from the Supreme Court.
EUR:
The euro is largely steady, with limited movement as there is little eurozone-specific news to drive direction. EURUSD is instead responding to the softer, more cautious dollar backdrop and broader market sentiment.
In the absence of major data or ECB signals today, the euro is expected to remain range-bound, with near-term direction dictated mainly by US developments — particularly any update on the Supreme Court ruling.
GBP:
Sterling is more active this morning following the release of UK GDP data, which has provided fresh insight into the underlying momentum of the UK economy. The reading suggests modest growth, helping to support the pound and offering some reassurance around near-term economic conditions.
While the data provides short-term support, sterling’s broader outlook will still depend on how markets interpret the implications for Bank of England policy, alongside global factors such as US developments and overall risk sentiment. For now, GBP is taking its lead from domestic data but remains vulnerable to wider FX moves.