FX Market Update: Blue Wave, Red Dollar.

USD – The dollar remains under pressure after US election results delivered a Democratic sweep, with lower Treasury yields and improving risk sentiment continuing to weigh on the greenback.

EUR – The euro is taking advantage of the weaker dollar backdrop, with traders eyeing a potential break above key resistance levels around 1.1270 – 1.1280 despite softer German factory orders data.

GBP – Sterling remains well supported, with GBP/USD holding above 1.3400 and maintaining a constructive tone as the dollar continues to soften.

USD: The market is still digesting the fallout from the US midterm elections, and for now the reaction is firmly dollar-negative. A Democratic sweep has prompted investors to reassess the outlook for US growth, spending and fiscal policy, helping push Treasury yields lower and reducing support for the greenback.

The Dollar Index has slipped to its lowest levels since late September, with Danske Bank highlighting lower yields as one of the key drivers behind the move. While the longer-term outlook for the dollar remains relatively solid, the market currently appears comfortable selling rallies rather than rebuilding long USD positions.

EUR: The euro continues to benefit from broad dollar weakness, although domestic data remains mixed. German factory orders disappointed this morning, limiting some of the single currency’s gains, but the bigger driver remains the weaker dollar environment.

BNY notes that stronger economic data and a vigilant ECB are helping support the euro, while UOB believes the positive bias remains intact provided EUR/USD can break and hold above the 1.1280 area. Traders will be watching closely to see whether the pair can finally escape the range that has dominated recent weeks.

GBP: Sterling continues to hold up well and remains one of the stronger major currencies.

Cable is comfortably above the 1.3400 handle and retains a constructive outlook heading into the latter part of the week.

The pound isn’t necessarily being driven by fresh UK-specific news today. Instead, it is benefitting from a combination of ongoing BoE support and broad USD weakness. As long as key support levels continue to hold, the bias remains for further upside, although traders will be wary of chasing the move too aggressively after the strong rally of recent sessions.

Economic Calendar

Expected Previous
09:00 GMT – NOK Norges Bank Interest Rate Decision 4.50% 4.50%
12:00 GMT – GBP Bank of England Interest Rate Decision 4.00% 3.75%
12:00 GMT – GBP Bank of England Meeting Minutes
13:00 GMT – CAD BoC Governor Macklem Speech
13:30 GMT – USD Initial Jobless Claims 196K 194K
16:00 GMT – EUR ECB President Lagarde Speech

*All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only. It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold. Rates are correct as of 8:00am UK time. CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown.