FX Market Update: Dollar firm as markets await Trump–Xi outcome; euro pressured, pound steadies.

USD – Trades with a firm tone as markets await the outcome of the Trump–Xi meeting, with the dollar supported by cautious positioning and steady yield support despite limited follow‑through.

EUR – Remains on the defensive against the dollar, with downside bias persisting as US data strength and technical pressure keep the single currency capped near recent support levels.

GBP – Holds modestly firmer after UK GDP and manufacturing data beat expectations, though gains remain limited as broader dollar strength and external risk continue to dominate.

USD:

The dollar index is holding firm around recent levels as markets remain cautious ahead of developments from the Trump–Xi meeting. With limited conviction across risk assets, the dollar continues to benefit from steady yield support and defensive positioning. Near‑term direction is likely to hinge on geopolitical headlines and whether they materially shift broader risk sentiment.

EUR:

The euro continues to face downside pressure against the dollar, trading below recent highs as stronger US fundamentals and technical resistance weigh on the pair. While EURUSD remains above key medium‑term averages, momentum has softened, and markets remain wary of further downside should USD strength persist. Near‑term price action remains driven more by US dynamics than euro‑specific catalysts.

GBP:

Sterling is holding above the 1.3500 level after UK GDP and manufacturing figures surprised to the upside, offering some short‑term support. However, gains remain tentative, with the pound struggling to build sustained momentum against a firm dollar backdrop. While domestic data has helped stabilise sentiment, external drivers continue to cap upside for GBP in the near term.

Economic Calendar

Expected Previous
1:30pm BST - USD US Unemployment claims WoW 205k 200k
1:30pm BST - USD US Retail sales MoM 0.5% 1.7%

*All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only. It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold. Rates are correct as of 8:00am UK time. CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown.