Markets Look Past Geopolitics, Data in Focus.

  • USD – Remains broadly supported by safe-haven demand, with markets focused on upcoming US data rather than geopolitical headlines.
  • EUR – Stable and modestly supported, helped by predictable ECB policy and easing inflation pressures.
  • GBP – Holding recent gains but lacks strong drivers, leaving sterling sensitive to external data and political noise.

USD
Despite attention-grabbing geopolitical headlines around a US–Venezuela oil deal and renewed tension linked to Trump’s comments on Greenland, FX markets have largely looked past the noise. The dollar strengthened modestly yesterday, helped by slightly lower yields elsewhere and steady demand as a safe haven.

Focus now shifts to key US data: JOLTS job openings and the ISM services survey are due today and are expected to soften slightly. ADP employment and durable goods data follow, ahead of Friday’s non-farm payrolls report, which will be closely watched for clues on future Fed rate cuts.

GBP
Sterling has held onto earlier gains, particularly against the euro, in a quiet week for UK data. With little domestic news, the pound is being driven mainly by US economic releases and Eurozone inflation figures.

Political headlines remain a background risk. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has urged unity within his cabinet amid weak polling, while betting markets suggest leadership uncertainty later this year. Without positive surprises, sterling’s upside appears limited.

EUR
Recent soft inflation readings in Germany and France point to the risk of a slightly weaker Eurozone CPI print today. Even so, forecasts around 2.0% headline and 2.4% core inflation remain well within the European Central Bank’s comfort zone.

As a result, the ECB is unlikely to change course for now. The euro remains relatively stable, but gains are likely to be modest and driven mainly by the direction of the dollar and overall market sentiment.

*All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only. It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold. Rates are correct as of 8:00am UK time. CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown.