Safe-Haven Dollar Steady; Weak UK Data and Eurozone Politics Weigh on FX Majors.

• USD remains resilient in its safe-haven role, though further gains may be constrained pending Powell’s remarks and any surprise U.S. data.

• EUR is under downward pressure, especially in the face of political uncertainty, and is vulnerable to further slides unless momentum shifts.

• GBP continues to weaken, driven by soft labour data and rising probability of BoE easing.

USD: 

The dollar is holding firm in the absence of major U.S. data, with its strength underpinned by its status as a safe-haven refuge in a volatile environment. Earlier easing in U.S.–China trade rhetoric also helped stabilize investor confidence, slightly tempering extreme dollar strength. However, the looming speech by Fed Chair Powell is a potential pivot point—markets are watching closely for any signal about the timing or magnitude of future rate cuts. According to ING’s “G10 FX Talking,” the threat of softer U.S. jobs data may limit how far the dollar can rally further.

In the short term, USD may remain relatively steady, unless Powell’s remarks or surprise U.S. data alter sentiment. If Powell adopts a cautious/dovish tone, the dollar could lose some upside momentum. Over the medium term, many strategists still envisage a gradual softening of the dollar in Q4, once global growth stabilizes and pressure for policy loosening emerges elsewhere (e.g. Europe, UK).

---

EUR: 

The euro is under sustained pressure against the dollar, trading in the vicinity of 1.1570 and failing to break above 1.1600. Political uncertainty in France continues to weigh on sentiment in the eurozone, contributing to downward pressure. Technical signals point to limited upside unless sentiment shifts—EUR/USD is viewed as bearish under 1.1600, with support zones near 1.1550 and 1.1500.

The euro is likely to continue consolidating in a weak mode unless a catalyst emerges (e.g. improved economic data, political stabilization). A break below 1.1550 would open room toward 1.1500 and lower on a momentum basis. On the upside, a reclaim of 1.1600–1.1630 would be needed to restore more neutral positioning.

---

GBP: 

New UK labour data shows a further slowdown in wage growth—average weekly earnings (ex-bonuses) rose 4.7% year-on-year, down from 4.8%. This marks the slowest pace since May 2022. The weaker labour data gives markets more room to price in a potential Bank of England rate cut, with the December cut now seen as having 40% probability.

In technical/strategic terms, GBP/USD is under downward pressure, and analysts suggest a bearish outlook in the near term. Unless there is a positive surprise in GDP or inflation, the bias for sterling remains tilted to the downside. Key upcoming data (e.g. UK GDP, inflation) and the November Budget will be crucial for guiding sterling’s next moves.

Economic Calendar