The dollar maintained a strong tone with fresh 4-month highs as US yields moved higher.

Risk appetite was more cautious on Monday amid underlying uncertainty surrounding potential contagion risks surrounding the liquidation of hedge fund Archegos’s positions. Wall Street equities were mixed with only slight net losses.

Bond yields moved higher which limited support for equities and had significant ramifications for currencies.

The dollar maintained a strong tone with fresh 4-month highs as US yields moved higher. The Euro remained on the defensive and was held close to 4-month lows around 1.1760. Sterling posted net gains with fresh 12 month lows near 0.8500 for EUR/GBP before a correction. Commodity currencies drifted lower after the New York open, but were resilient and gained ground on Tuesday.

Overall confidence in the Euro-zone outlook remained weak during Monday, illustrated by reports that Italy was set to cut its GDP forecasts with 2021 growth cut to 4.1% from 6.0%. There was minor relief following comments from the French Prime Minister that there were no plans to change restrictions on shops and businesses at this stage.

The Euro, however, was unable to make significant headway as underlying sentiment remained negative. There were further expectations that the Euro-zone would substantially under-perform relative to the US and yield spreads remained negative for the single currency with the dollar at 4-month highs as EUR/USD drifted lower.

ECB council member de Cos stated that it was vital to maintain an accommodative monetary policy. ECB data recorded bond buying of EUR18.95bn from EUR21.05bn the previous week, but above the figure two weeks ago as the bank sustained the faster rate of purchases to help keep yields down.

The US Dallas manufacturing index strengthened to 28.9 from 17.2 previously and well above consensus forecasts while there was strong growth in orders and increased inflation pressures. There were expectations that there would be a strong employment report on Friday which would boost confidence in the outlook.

Markets will remain wary over month-end position adjustment over the next 36 hours, although there are no indications that there will be major currency moves.

The dollar posted fresh 4-month highs on Tuesday with EUR/USD remaining under pressure and around 1.1760 despite limited net gains for commodity currencies.

The dollar was unable to make headway in early Europe on Monday, but the US currency gradually gained traction during the day as the yen lost wider support.

There was an important element of uncertainty surrounding hedge funds Archegos Capital and further potential losses for global investment banks.

US equity markets were, however, broadly resilient with only slight losses for the S&P 500 index which limited potential yen demand. US bond yields also moved significantly higher which underpinned the US currency during the session.

Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda stated that the central bank won’t end ETF purchases or unload existing holdings. He also reiterated that the bank will monitor market developments closely. The bank is scheduled to release revised bond-purchase details on Wednesday.

US yields continued to move higher in Asia on Tuesday with the 10-year yield at 14-month highs near 1.75% which provided further dollar support. In this environment, USD/JPY tested the 110.00 level for the first time in over 12 months while EUR/JPY traded around 129.30.

UK mortgage approvals declined to 87,700 for February from 99,000 the previous month and below consensus forecasts of 95,000 amid uncertainty whether the increased stamp duty thresholds would be sustained beyond the end of March. The data was mixed as there was a strong increase in mortgage lending of £6.2bn for the month and the strongest figure since March 2016. There was a further decline in personal lending of £1.25bn for the month as consumers continued to repay debts with an annual decline of 9.9%, the sharpest decline since the series started in 1994.

Sterling maintained a strong tone in early Europe with GBP/EUR sliding to fresh 12-month high just above the 1.1750 level amid Euro-zone reservations. GBP/USD, however failed to hold above 1.3800.

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Vlieghe stated that rapid growth is needed to close the gap compared with the pre-pandemic growth path. In this context, he noted that a few quarters of good growth would not imply that the central bank can put on the brakes and tighten policy. He added that any increase in inflation would not be enough this year to say that the economy does not require monetary support.

Economic Calendar

Expected Previous
07:45 Consumer Confidence(MAR) 91 91
08:00 CHF KOF Leading Indicator(MAR) 96.6 102.7
08:30 GBP Consumer Credit(FEB) -1.900B -2.392B
08:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals(FEB) 96.00K 98.99K
10:00 Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence(MAR) -14.8 -14.8
13:00 US House Price Index (M/M)(JAN) 1.10%
13:00 Germany Harmonised CPI (M/M)(MAR) 0.50% 0.60%
13:00 Germany Harmonised CPI (Y/Y)(MAR) 1.60% 1.60%
13:00 Germany CPI (M/M)(MAR) 0.50% 0.70%
13:00 Germany CPI (Y/Y)(MAR) 1.20% 1.30%
14:00 USD CB Consumer Confidence(MAR) 91.3
23:50 JPY Industrial Production (M/M)(FEB 01) -1.00%

*All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only. It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold. Rates are correct as of 8:00am UK time. CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown.