EUR/USD dipped to fresh 20-month lows around 1.1225 as Euro sentiment remained weak.

President Biden announced that Chair Powell would be nominated for a second term. There were expectations that policy would be slightly more hawkish than under Brainard.

There was also further speculation that inflation pressures would force a faster pace of Fed tightening. US yields increased with 2-year rates at 20-month highs after a poor auction.

Wall Street stocks failed to hold initial gains and posted limited losses. Global markets were mixed with a limited net advance for Chinese bourses.

The dollar posted fresh gains on the day to fresh 16-month highs and USD/JPY posted a fresh 4-year high above 115.00. EUR/USD dipped to fresh 20-month lows around 1.1225 as Euro sentiment remained weak. Sterling was dominated by global moves with GBP/USD trading below 1.3400. Dollar strength undermined commodity currencies with significant net losses.

The Euro attempted to recover some ground in early Europe on Monday, but was unable to make significant headway as underlying sentiment remained negative. There were further concerns surrounding coronavirus developments with unease surrounding the latest imposition of restrictions and fears that further measures would need to be introduced over the next few weeks. In this environment, there were further concerns that the economic recovery would be compromised.

The German Bundesbank stated that inflation was likely to be just below 6% for November and the economic recovery is likely to take a breather.

Just after the New York open, President Biden announced that he would nominate Federal Reserve Chair Powell for a second term with Brainard as Vice-Chair. Although the decision was in line with expectations, there had been significant speculation that Brainard would be nominated as Chair.

Overall, there was speculation that monetary policy would be slightly more restrictive under Powell than Brainard and the dollar posted net gains after the decision, especially with speculation that underlying inflation concerns will force a faster pace of tightening. EUR/USD dipped to lows below 1.1250 as the dollar posted a fresh 16-month high.

Euro-zone consumer confidence dipped to -6.8 for November from -4.8 previously and below market expectations of -5.5.

Markets will assess the latest business confidence data due during Tuesday for evidence on underlying trends in the Euro-zone and US economies.

The dollar maintained a strong tone on Tuesday with a further advance against commodity currencies with EUR/USD close to 20-month lows of 1.1225 posted overnight.

The Chicago Fed national activity index strengthened to 0.76 for October from a revised -0.18 previously with strong employment data and a rebound in industrial production. Existing home sales edged higher to an annual rate of 6.34mn from 6.29mn previously.

The nomination of Powell for a second term as Fed Chair triggered losses in US Treasuries after Monday’s New York open and yields moved higher. The two-year yield also increased to the highest level since March 2020 with a rate above 0.55% following another poor auction result.

US equities had been concerned that a Brainard nomination would trigger tighter regulation surrounding Wall Street and the decision to nominate Powell caused some relief for equities which also tended to undermine the Japanese currency. In this environment, USD/JPY posted sharp gains to around 114.75 at the European close with the yen losing ground on the major crosses. The yen failed to recover despite a retreat in US equities.

There was further speculation that the Chinese central bank would ease monetary policy while Asian equities were again mixed. US yields continued to move higher and USD/JPY moved above the 115.00 level for the first time since March 2017. The pair traded around 115.10 at the European open with EUR/JPY around 129.30.

There were no major UK developments during Monday, but markets did fret over the risk that the UK would also have to impose restrictions to curb coronavirus infections. The UK currency was unable to make headway and GBP/USD dipped to test support below 1.3400 following the nomination of Powell for a second term as Fed Chair. Overall risk conditions were slightly less confident late in Europe as equities also edged lower.

The latest UK business confidence data will be watched closely on Tuesday with expectations that the PMI readings will weaken on the month. The Bank of England will be monitoring employment, costs and pricing indices closely within the data.

Economic Calendar

Expected Previous
08:15 Markit Mfg PMI(NOV) 54 53.6
08:15 Markit Serv PMI(NOV) 56.6
08:30 GBP PMI Services(OCT) 54.6 54.6
08:30 GBP PMI Manufacturing(OCT 01) 56.3 56.3
08:30 EUR German Manufacturing PMI (M/M)(NOV) 56.5 57.8
08:30 EUR German PMI Composite(NOV) 54 52
08:30 EUR German PMI Services(NOV) 55 52.4
09:00 Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing(NOV) 58.3
09:00 Euro-Zone PMI Composite(NOV) 55.2 54.2
09:00 Euro-Zone PMI Services(NOV) 55.5 54.6
11:00 CBI Distributive Trades Survey(NOV) 30
13:45 USD Markit Services PMI(NOV) 55.1 58.7
13:45 USD Markit PMI Composite(NOV 01) 57.6
14:45 USD Manufacturing PMI(NOV) 60.3 58.4

*All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only. It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold. Rates are correct as of 8:00am UK time. CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown.