There was further speculation that the Bank of England would push for an early in interest rates to help curb inflation pressure.

US retail sales data was stronger than expected. The data helped boost confidence in the US growth outlook and also helped underpin risk appetite. US Treasuries lost ground with the 10-year yield around 1.60% on Monday.

Wall Street equities posted net gains on earnings optimism. There was a more cautious mood in Asia as Chinese data missed expectations.

The dollar overall recovered from intra-day lows on Friday and secured a net advance on Monday. EUR/USD was unable to hold above 1.1600. Sterling was again supported by expectations of Bank of England tightening with GBP/EUR testing 19-month highs near 1.1870.

The Australian dollar retreated from intra-day highs amid the dollar recovery. Oil prices posted further gains with WTI at a 7-year high on Monday. The Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone failed to gain fresh traction from higher oil prices.

Gold dipped sharply as US yields moved higher. Bitcoin hit a 6-month high near $63,000 while volatility surged in Asia on Monday.

The dollar edged lower ahead of Friday’s New York open, although overall ranges were relatively narrow with markets looking for fresh direction.

US retail sales increased 0.7% for September compared with expectations of a 0.2% decline and there was a small upward revision for August to a 0.9% gain. The year-on-year increase slowed slightly to 14.0% from a revised 15.4% previously. There was a slight increase in car sales compared with expectations of a further decline which boosted overall sales. Underlying sales increased 0.8%, above market expectations of a 0.5% increase while there was a 0.8% increase in the control group.

The New York Empire manufacturing index retreated to 19.8 for October from 34.3 previously and below consensus forecasts of 25.0. There was also a slowdown in growth for new orders, shipments and unfilled orders. There was a further significant employment increase while the increase in prices received slowed slightly, but there was a stronger rate of increase for costs. Companies were slightly more optimistic over the outlook with strong upward pressure on costs expected to continue.

The University of Michigan consumer confidence index edged lower to 71.4 for October from 72.8 previously and below consensus forecasts of 73.1 as the current conditions and expectations readings both retreated. One-year inflation expectations increased to 4.8% from 4.6% while the five-year index at 2.8% from 3.0%.

The dollar edged higher after the sales data with commodity currencies also correcting weaker and EUR/USD consolidated just below the 1.1600 level.

CFTC data recorded a small reduction in short Euro positions while there was a marginal reduction in the overall long dollar position, but the US currency will be vulnerable if sentiment shifts. The dollar posted a net advance on Monday as yields moved higher with EUR/USD retreating to around 1.1580.

US Treasuries lost ground after the retail sales release and were unable to regain ground after the Wall Street open with the 10-year yield increasing to near 1.57%. Higher yields helped underpin the dollar and the yen overall remained on the defensive as equity markets made headway. USD/JPY posted fresh 35-month highs near 114.50 before a limited correction into the New York close with the yen still vulnerable on the crosses.

CFTC data recorded a further increase in short yen positions to near 77,000 contracts in the latest week, the largest short position since May 2019. Markets will be looking to push the yen weaker in the short term, but the positioning data will maintain the risk of a sharp correction if sentiment deteriorates.

Chinese GDP data recorded an increase of 4.9% in the year to the third quarter from 7.9% previously and marginally below market expectations. The industrial production data was also weaker than expected, although there was a recovery in retail sales.

Equity markets edged lower on Monday, but the dollar was underpinned by higher yields and USD/JPY held around 114.25 with EUR/JPY around 132.40 as the Japanese currency was unable to recover ground on the main crosses.

Sterling gradually gained ground during Friday as higher yields continued to underpin the currency. There was further speculation that the Bank of England would push for an early in interest rates to help curb inflation pressure. The gains in equity markets and interest in reflation trades also helped underpin the UK currency. There was a GBP/USD move above the 1.3750 level while EUR/GBP rallied to 19-month highs near 1.1850 as resistance levels were broken.

CFTC data recorded a decline in net short Sterling positions to 12,000 contracts from 20,000 previously which continued to suggest a lack of clear direction within funds.

The Rightmove index recorded a 1.8% increase in house prices for October. In comments over the weekend, Bank of England Governor Bailey stated that the central bank will have to act to curb inflation. He added that monetary policy cannot solve supply-side problems, but it will have to act if there was a risk to medium-term inflation and expectations. He still did not see a general pattern of labour market pressures with mixed pressures within sectors.

The comments overall underpinned Sterling, but it was unable to extend gains and GBP/USD failed to hold above 1.3750 while GBP/EUR held above 1.1850 after briefly hitting fresh 19-month highs close to 1.1870.

Economic Calendar

Expected Previous
13:30 CAD Foreign Securities Purchase(AUG) 14.19B
14:15 USD Capacity Utilization(AUG) 76.40%
14:15 USD Industrial Production(SEP) 0.40%
15:00 NAHB Housing Market Index(SEP) 74 76
21:00 USD TIC Net Long-Term(AUG) 2.0B

*All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only. It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold. Rates are correct as of 8:00am UK time. CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown.