MPC Announcement, NFP, G20, French Fish Fight and China’s Real Estate Woes.
This week’s focus is on two of the world’s most important data releases: non-farm payrolls and the Bank of England’s interest rate decision. The monetary policy committee is widely expected to raise the Bank of England’s base rate, or at the very least give solid advice on when they plan to do so, on Thursday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce the monthly Non-Farm Payrolls numbers on Friday, with 397k new jobs projected to be added. This follows a string of major forecast misses in the previous two months.
Boris Johnson and Emanuel Macron failed to mend the divide between the UK and France during the G20 conference in Rome. French ministers have been escalating the war of words between the two proud maritime nations. The French feel aggrieved at the lack of licenses granted for their vessels to fish in UK waters. Though this will not have a direct impact on currency markets it shows that Brexit uncertainty is still with us.
In retaliation to many real estate companies struggling to pay their debt, Premier Xi’s government is clamping down on borrowing in the real estate industry. The industry supports millions of jobs in China. This is cooling China’s COVID recovery with households and businesses uncertain of their futures with housing sales and consumption slumping. If companies such as Evergrande where to collapse, it is though that in a worst-case scenario the global ramifications could be akin to the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008.
|07:00||EUR German Retail Sales (M/M)||0.5%||1.2%|
|09:30||GBP Final Manufacturing PMI||65.9||68.1|
|13:45||USD Final Manufacturing PMI||59.2||59.2|
|14:00||USD ISM Manufacturing PMI||60.4||61.1|
|14:00||USD Construction Spending (M/M)||0.6%||0.0%|
|14:00||USD ISM Manufacturing Prices||82.5||81.2|