President Trump was hospitalised after Friday’s market close with a high degree of uncertainty over political developments.

The US jobs report was mixed and had little overall impact as political events dominated. Risk appetite gradually recovered on Friday as US equities pared losses.

President Trump was hospitalised after Friday’s market close with a high degree of uncertainty over political developments but overall risk appetite held steady.

The dollar failed to generate safe-haven support with the Euro overall little changed amid coronavirus Euro-zone reservations. Sterling gained some net support amid some relief that Brexit talks will be extended with GBP/USD above 1.2900. Commodity currencies edged higher on Monday as equity markets strengthened.

The headline Euro-zone CPI inflation rate declined to -0.3% for September from -0.2% previously and also below expectations of -0.2%. The core rate also declined to 0.2% from 0.4% and below market expectations of 0.5%. This was the lowest core reading since the Euro was introduced and will reinforce pressure for the ECB to take additional action to underpin both reported inflation and inflation expectations. There is likely to be speculation of further monetary stimulus by the central bank.

Headline US non-farm payrolls increased 661,000 for September after a revised 1.49mn the previous month and below consensus forecasts of 850,000. Manufacturing jobs increased 66,000 on the month, but there was a slowdown in the rate of recovery within the leisure and hospitality sector. The number of government jobs declined sharply as temporary census jobs came to an end.

The unemployment rate declined to a 6-month low of 7.9% from 8.4%, although there was a drop in the participation rate and the reported increase in employment was held to 275,000. The data overall suggested a net slowdown in the labour market, although the market reaction was limited given the focus on politics and President Trump. Overall, EUR/USD settled close to 1.1720 as narrow ranges prevailed with only limited dollar demand.

CFTC data recorded only a marginal decline in long Euro positions, maintaining the risk of further position adjustment if Euro sentiment declines. There were also reservations over Euro-zone coronavirus developments. EUR/USD was marginally higher around 1.1725 on Monday as potential defensive dollar demand faded.

Risk appetite stabilised during Friday with a paring of US equity-market losses as speculation over the health of President Trump and political implications dominated markets. There was also uncertainty over the impact on potential fiscal stimulus. USD/JPY overall edged higher to the 105.40 area, although caution prevailed.

Trump was admitted to hospital after the markets closed on Friday and there was confusion over when the first positive diagnosis had occurred and several other senior Administration figures also tested positive which reinforced underlying uncertainty over campaign developments.

There were further discussions over another US fiscal stimulus package, although with no evidence of a breakthrough. Official reports on the health of President Trump were generally positive, although there was a high degree of uncertainty, especially as one of the drugs administered is normally used only in serious cases. Latest opinion polls suggested that Democrat candidate Biden had extended his lead in national opinion polls although, again, there was still a high degree of uncertainty.

Overall risk conditions held steady with US equity futures higher which limited yen support and USD/JPY traded just above 105.50 on Monday.

There were no UK economic data releases during Friday as political considerations dominated. The UK government announced that Prime Minister Johnson would hold talks with EU Commission President Von der Leyen on Saturday which helped underpin expectations of political progress in EU/UK trade talks.

It was also announced that further talks would be held over the next two weeks and, despite some disappointment that there were still important gaps between the two sides, there was also relief that negotiations had not collapsed. GBP/USD pushed to highs near 1.2950 and GBP.EUR retreated to near 1.1020.

CFTC data recorded that speculators had hold Sterling in the week with the largest short non-commercial position for 8 weeks. This will increase the potential for short covering if there is positive news on trade talks while volatility is likely to remain at elevated levels given the political and economic elements.

Johnson and Von der Leyen stated that progress had been made in recent weeks, but that significant gaps remain. They agreed that negotiators should work more intensively in order to try and bridge the gaps. Negotiations will continue over the next two weeks, although talks are still not in the crucial “tunnel” phase.  Sterling was hampered to some extent by unease over coronavirus developments, especially with a jump in reported cases over the weekend due to technical considerations.

Economic Calendar

Expected Previous
07:40 BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks - -
08:30 EUR German PMI Composite(SEP) 53.7 53.7
08:30 EUR German PMI Services(SEP) 50.8 49.1
08:45 Markit/ADACI Svcs PMI(SEP) 49.2 47.1
08:50 Markit Serv PMI(SEP) - 47.5
09:00 Euro-Zone PMI Composite(SEP) 51.6 50.1
09:00 Euro-Zone PMI Services(SEP) - 47.6
09:30 GBP PMI Services(SEP) 60.1 55.1
09:30 Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence(OCT) -10.5 -8
09:30 BoE MPC Member Haldane Speech - -
10:00 Euro - Zone Retail Sales (Y/Y)(AUG) - 0.40%
10:00 Euro - Zone Retail Sales (M/M)(AUG) - -1.30%
13:30 CAD Full Employment Change(SEP) - 205.8K
14:45 USD Markit PMI Composite(SEP 01) 54.4 54.6
14:45 USD Markit Services PMI(SEP) 54.6 55
15:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI(SEP) 56 56.9
15:45 Fed President Evans Speaks - -
20:15 FOMC Member Raphael Bostic speech - -
22:30 AiG Construction Index(SEP) - 37.9

*All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only. It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold. Rates are correct as of 8:00am UK time. CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown.