The ECB increased its PEPP bond-buying programme by EUR600bn to EUR1350bn at its policy meeting.

The ECB increased its PEPP bond-buying programme by EUR600bn to EUR1350bn at its policy meeting. Initially, there was choppy Euro trading, but the single currency then gained sharply to 11-week highs above 1.1350 for EUR/USD with monetary and fiscal support.

Overall risk appetite remained robust despite slight corrective losses for the main global indices with fresh buying late in Asia. The yen and Swiss franc lost ground as demand for defensive assets faded.

The dollar overall continued to decline as confidence in the global outlook undermined defensive US demand with the currency index at 11-week lows. Sterling was dominated by dollar and Euro moves with GBP/USD gains, but sentiment remained fragile with GBP/EUR near 1.1100.

The Euro was unable to make headway ahead of the ECB policy decision. There were no changes to interest rates at the policy meeting with the refi rates held at 0.0%. The central bank did, however, increase the total amount of the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) by a further EUR600bn to EUR1350bn. The bank also reiterated that it would adopt further measures if necessary and the PEPP purchases would continue until at least the middle of 2021 compared with the end of 2020 previously. There was a sharp downgrading of the 2020 GDP forecast to -8.7% from 0.8% in March with a recovery of 5.2% projected for 2021. The 2020 CPI inflation rate forecast was lowered to 0.3% from 1.1% previously with the 2021 projection cut to 0.8% from 1.4%.

President Lagarde stated that the balance of risks to the outlook were on the downside, although she also stated that there was evidence that the economy was bottoming out. The Euro lost ground after downbeat economic projections, but EUR/USD held above 1.1200 in choppy trading.

Overall Euro sentiment strengthened sharply later in Europe as markets considered the powerful market stimulus. There was also a delayed reaction to the German fiscal package announced earlier which amounted to EUR130bn. The combination of fiscal and monetary stimulus boosted recovery hopes.

Overall dollar demand remained weaker and the Euro made significant gains. A break above 1.1300 triggered further sharp Euro buying an 11-week peak above 1.1350 before a slight correction. The Euro maintained a strong tone on Friday as sentiment held strong. The US employment report is due later on Friday with expectations of a decline in non-farm payrolls around 7.8 million. A lower than expected decline would tend to underpin risk appetite and potentially undermine the dollar.

German factory orders declined 25.8% for April compared with expectations of -19.7%, but EUR/USD continued to advance to fresh 11-week highs near 1.1370 as commodity currencies made further gains.

Overall risk appetite was little changed ahead of the New York open as US equity futures edged lower. Markets moved higher at the New York open. US jobless claims declined to 1.88mn in the latest week from 2.13mn previously, although this was above consensus forecasts of 1.80mn while continuing claims increased to 21.5mn from 20.84mn as weekly volatility continued. The April trade deficit increased to $49.4bn from $42.3bn the previous month as exports declined sharply to a 10-year low.

Both the dollar and yen tended to lose ground during the day as confidence in a global recovery sapped demand for both currencies. Although US equities drifted lower, the yen continued to lose support with USD/JPY advancing to highs near 109.20 while EUR/JPY strengthened sharply to highs near 124.00.

There were still underlying concerns over US-China tensions with reports that President Trump was looking to take further action against China. Equity markets held firm, however, with Asian markets posting the strongest weekly again for 9 years amid optimism over the global recovery. With demand for both currencies remaining weak, USD/JPY traded around 109.25. EUR/JPY strengthened further to 13-month highs around 124.30.

The UK PMI construction index recovered to 28.9 for May from 8.2 previously, but this was below expectations of 29.7 and the second-lowest reading in history. Despite a limited recovery, overall business sentiment remained weak amid cancellation of projects while there were also notable supply shortages and lengthening delivery times which hampered the sector.

Bank of England executive director Hauser stated that negative interest rates would not be used in the short term, although the policy was not ruled out as a policy tool. Global policy moves tended to dominate Sterling moves as the Euro moved sharply higher after the New York open. GBP/EUR weakened to near 1.1100 while GBP/USD strengthened to near 1.2600 as the dollar lost ground.

UK consumer confidence declined to record lows for May, although robust risk appetite provided underlying Sterling protection. Trade rhetoric following the UK/EU trade negotiations will be important for Sterling later on Friday.

Economic Calendar

Expected Previous
08:30 GBP Halifax HPI (M/M)(MAY) -0.70% -0.60%
13:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (Y/Y)(MAY) 3.30% 7.90%
13:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings (M/M)(MAY) 0.90% 4.70%
13:30 USD Private Nonfarm Payrolls (MAY) -8325K -19520K
13:30 USD Non-farm Payrolls(M/M)(MAY) -7450K -20500K
13:30 United States Unemployment Rate(M/M)(MAY) 19.80% 14.70%
13:30 CAD Employment Change (M/M)(MAY) -4000.0K -1993.8K
13:30 CAD Full Employment Change(MAY) - -1472.0K
13:30 CAD Unemployment Rate (M/M)(MAY) 18.00% 13.00%
15:00 CAD Ivey PMI(M/M)(MAY) 22.8
20:00 USD Consumer Credit(APR) 15.00B -12.04B

*All rates shown are indicative of interbank rates and should only be used for indication purposes only. It is important to note that foreign exchange rates fluctuate and that rates may vary depending on the amount and the base currency that is purchased or sold. Rates are correct as of 8:00am UK time. CentralFX are not responsible for the rates shown.